在当前和未来的气候变化下,基于MaxEnt的预测适合Leymus secalinus的潜在分布
Shimeng Zhao1, Zongxian Zhang1, Changyu Gao1
1Key Laboratory of Efficient Forage Production Mode, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affair, College of Grassland Science, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030801, China.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|January 25, 2025
概括
草地退化是中国北部的一个问题,但本土草 Leymus secalinus 可以帮助恢复它. 本研究确定了关键因素和未来适合L.secalinus的地区,以指导保护工作.
科学领域:
- 生态与环境科学,专注于草原恢复和气候变化影响.
背景情况:
- 中国北部农牧生态土的草原退化是一个重大的生态挑战.
- 本地草,特别是Leymus secalinus,为生态恢复提供了一个有希望的解决方案.
- 了解L.secalinus的分布对于有效的草原保护和恢复战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响Leymus secalinus的空间分布的主要生态因素.
- 在各种气候变化情景下预测L.secalinus目前和未来的适合分布区域.
- 为保护,引入和种植L. secalinus.提供科学基础.
主要方法:
- 收集了357个关于L. secalinus.自然分布的数据点.
- 采用杰克刀法和皮尔森相关性分析来选23个潜在分布变量.
- 利用MaxEnt模型在SSP场景下预测当前和未来的合适分布区域 (SSP1-26,SSP2-45,SSP5-85).
主要成果:
- 平均日间温度范围,年平均温度,最潮湿季度的降水量和海拔被确定为关键的分布因素.
- 目前适合的地区集中在中国北部的农牧生态,在新疆,西藏,四川,黑龙江和吉林还有其他地区.
- 预计未来适合的地区将保持相似,在SSP1-26下有显著的扩张,在SSP2-45下有显著的收缩,特别是影响北部和东北部的边界.
结论:
- 这项研究揭示了关键的气候因素和Leymus secalinus的潜在分布范围.
- 这些发现支持L.secalinus的知情保护,引入和种植,防止不适应的引入.
- 这项研究对于保持L. secalinus.产生的生态服务和经济效益至关重要.
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