在特种部队选拔计划期间早期识别掉队者.
Ruud J R den Hartigh1, Rik Huijzer2, Frank J Blaauw3
1Department of Psychology, Faculty of Behavioural and Social Sciences, University of Groningen, Grote Kruisstraat 2/1, 9712TS, Groningen, The Netherlands. j.r.den.hartigh@rug.nl.
Scientific reports
|January 25, 2025
概括
低的自我效能和动机预测在特种部队选择中脱而出. 早期预测消耗是可能的,提供有针对性的支持和改善计划成功率的机会.
科学领域:
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 军事科学 军事科学
- 表演心理学 表演心理学
背景情况:
- 特殊部队的选择涉及极端的心理和身体压力.
- 高的退学率 (高达80%) 需要消耗的预测模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个可解释的模型,预测特殊部队选择期间的新兵退出.
- 为了确定消耗的关键心理预测因素.
主要方法:
- 每周对249名新兵进行自我效能,动机,压力和恢复方面的评估.
- 应用线性回归和机器学习技术进行预测.
- 交叉验证以评估模型性能并确定重要的预测因素.
主要成果:
- 线性回归实现了良好的预测性能 (AUC 0.69),具有可解释的结果.
- 较低的自我效能和动机被确定为中断的重要预测因素.
- 退学可以在发生前几周预测.
结论:
- 预测模型可以有效地识别有退学风险的新兵.
- 早期识别可以及时进行干预和支持.
- 这些发现提高了对高压力选择计划中心理因素的理解.
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