评估程序式反应性焦点药物管理对塞内加尔北部疟疾发病率的影响:中断时间序列分析
Ellen Leah Ferriss1, Yakou Dieye2, Moustapha Cissé2
1PATH, 2201 Westlake Ave Ste 200, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA. eferriss@path.org.
Malaria journal
|January 25, 2025
概括
反应性药物管理策略,反应性焦点药物管理 (rFDA) 和反应性群体焦点药物管理 (rMFDA),降低了塞内加尔北部疟疾发病率. 这些干预措施在低传播环境中避免了2000多起病例.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
- 控制疟疾 控制疟疾
背景情况:
- 世界卫生组织建议采取反应性药物管理,以减少在临近消除的地区的疟疾传播.
- 很少有研究评估了撒哈拉以南非洲的反应焦点药物管理 (rFDA),特别是在程序条件下.
- 塞内加尔在2016年在低传播地区实施了rFDA和反应性群体焦点药物管理 (rMFDA).
研究的目的:
- 评估rFDA和rMFDA对塞内加尔北部疟疾发病率的影响.
- 测量这些反应性药物管理策略在现实世界的程序设置中的有效性.
主要方法:
- 一个中断的时间序列分析,使用每月确认的疟疾病例数据从DHIS2.
- 调整了负二项式回归模型,以评估干预后的发病率变化 (水平和趋势).
- 反事实模拟以估计避免疟疾病例的数量.
主要成果:
- 推出后没有观察到疟疾发病率的立即减少 (IRR=1.00).
- 疟疾发病率每月下降4%与rFDA和rMFDA相关 (IRR=0.96).
- 在研究期间,估计有2070例疟疾病例被避免.
结论:
- 反应性焦点药物管理 (rFDA) 和反应性群体焦点药物管理 (rMFDA) 与塞内加尔北部低传播地区疟疾发病率的降低有关.
- 这些发现支持使用rFDA和rMFDA作为疟疾控制策略的一部分.
- 在这种情况下,可能需要额外的干预措施来消除疟疾.
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