根据气候变化,评估印度干旱风险与多个多变量气象干旱指数 (MMDI) 的一致性
Femin C Varghese1, Subhasis Mitra1
1Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology, Palakkad, Kerala, India.
The Science of the total environment
|January 26, 2025
概括
不同的干旱指数在历史上显示一致,但在气候变化方面存在分歧,特别是在干旱地区. 这凸显了气候影响评估中需要仔细选择指数的必要性.
科学领域:
- 气象学 天气学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 气象干旱的特征包括各种多模型干旱指数 (MMDIs).
- 了解MMDI的一致性和不确定性对于准确的气候变化影响评估至关重要.
- 印度次大陆面临着多样化的气候区和社会经济路径 (SSP),影响干旱预测.
研究的目的:
- 在历史和未来的气候下调查六个MMDI的时空一致性.
- 量化不同MMDI配方所产生的气象干旱特征的不确定性.
- 评估参考蒸发透气 (ETo) 方法对MMDI一致性的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了ERA5再分析和合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 的模型输出.
- 采用了六个MMDI:标准化降雨蒸发指数 (SPEI),侦察干旱指数 (RDI),自我校准的帕尔默干旱严重程度指数 (scPDSI),标准化帕尔默干旱指数 (SPDI),标准化水分异常指数 (SZI) 和供需干旱指数 (SDDI).
- 应用协议映射,类别差异分析和全球敏感性分析 (GSA) 来评估MMDI的一致性和不确定性.
主要成果:
- 在历史气候条件下,MMDIs表现出强烈的同意.
- 大多数MMDI在气候变化问题上都达成了广泛的共识,在干旱地区和更高排放场景下存在明显的分歧.
- 未来干旱预测的不确定性增加与特定的MMDI (SDDI,SPEI预测更干燥;scPDSI预测更潮湿) 以及对降雨和ETO的不同敏感性有关.
- 选择ETO方法显著影响了MMDI的不确定性,Penman-Monteith方法被确定为关键因素.
- 确定MMDI-GCM相互作用是干旱预测中不确定性的主要来源.
结论:
- 虽然MMDI在历史上普遍一致,但在未来的气候变化中出现了显著的差异,特别是在脆弱的地区.
- 选择合适的MMDI至关重要,因为不同的指数可以产生截然不同的干旱特征.
- 仔细评估和选择MMDIs对于可靠的气候变化影响评估和干旱管理策略至关重要.
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