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模拟气候变化对作物现象学和小麦-玉米作物系统产量的影响,并探索可持续的解决方案

Junaid Nawaz Chauhdary^1,2,3, Hong Li¹, Xuwei Pan¹

¹Research Center of Fluid Machinery Engineering and Technology, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China.

Journal of the science of food and agriculture

|January 27, 2025

概括

气候变化威胁到半干旱的小麦-玉米系统. 优化施肥和植物密度可以显著提高作物产量,确保粮食安全和农业可持续性.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
适应气候变化适应气候变化
农业学是一种农业学.

背景情况:

半干旱的小麦-玉米作物系统面临着预计气候变化带来的重大威胁.
这些变化对全球粮食安全,环境可持续性和社会经济发展构成风险.
优化管理实践对于减轻这些影响至关重要.

研究的目的:

校准和验证小麦-玉米作物系统的APSIM模型.
模拟气候变化对作物现象学和产量的影响.
评估优化施肥和植物密度的潜力,以提高作物生产率.

主要方法:

使用5年的现场数据 (2017/2018-2022) 校准和验证了APSIM模型.
用R平方和纳什-萨特克利夫效率等统计指标评估模型性能.
在各种气候变化场景下进行了模拟,用于近期和远期的未来.

主要成果:

预计在不久的将来,气候变化将使小麦,春季玉米和秋季玉米的产量减少11-20%.
优化施肥 (N:60-120公斤/ha-1,P:40-80公斤/ha-1) 和植物密度 (小麦:100-150植物/m-2,玉米:8-13植物/m-2),可以提高产量19-55%.
预计在未来的气候情景下,作物现象学,包括出现,结合和成熟,预计将在未来的气候情景下取得进展.

结论:

实施优化施肥和植物密度对于减轻气候变化对小麦-玉米系统的影响至关重要.
这些战略对于保障粮食安全和维持农业生产率至关重要.
该研究强调了半干旱农业地区需要适应性管理的必要性.

关键词:

在 APSIM 里面.作物现象学作物现象学授精水平,受精水平等.玉米的产量是玉米的产量.植物密度植物密度小麦产量小麦产量

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