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从一个高分辨率的全球地球系统模型中重新审视最后一个冰区的预测
Madeleine Fol1, Bruno Tremblay1,2, Stephanie Pfirman3
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC Canada.
概括
最后一个冰区可能会在北冰洋中部没有冰后很快消失. 这种关键的北极息地丧失威胁着需要冰的物种.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 北极海洋学 北极海洋学
- 海冰动力学 海冰动力学
背景情况:
- 最后一个冰区预计将是最后一个拥有海冰的北极地区.
- 以前的气候模型缺乏精确模拟冰出口的分辨率.
- 了解最后一个冰区的持续性对于北极生态系统至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用高分辨率的气候模拟来预测最后一个冰区的未来.
- 通过北极水道调查海冰出口的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了高分辨率的社区地球系统模型.
- 在高端强迫场景下模拟的气候预测.
- 专注于通过加拿大北极群岛和纳雷斯海峡解决海冰出口问题.
主要成果:
- 在高端情景下,最后一个冰区的海冰变薄,变得可移动.
- 显著的南方海冰出口发生在最后一个冰区.
- 最后一个冰区的海冰可能会在北极中部季节性无冰后大约十年消失.
结论:
- 高分辨率模型显示,最后一个冰区的脆弱性比以前想象的要大.
- 通过狭窄海峡出口的海冰显著影响了最后一个冰区的持续性.
- 最后一个冰区的潜在损失对依赖冰的物种产生了严重的影响.
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