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三种机器学习模型在预测每日流量和不确定性评估方面的有效性
Luka Vinokić1, Milan Dotlić1, Veljko Prodanović1,2
1Institute for Artificial Intelligence R&D of Serbia, Fruškogorska 1, Novi Sad 21000, Serbia.
Water research X
|January 27, 2025
概括
时间科尔莫戈罗夫-阿诺德网络 (TKAN) 在流量预测方面表现强,性能优于长短期内存 (LSTM) 并且几乎与时间卷积网络 (TCN) 相匹配. 这项研究提高了机器学习模型的可靠性,用于自适应式水资源管理.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 机器学习 机器学习
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 精确的流量预测对于水资源管理至关重要,尤其是在不断变化的气候条件下.
- 传统的方法经常与水文数据的复杂性和非静止性作斗争.
- 机器学习为提高预测准确性和效率提供了有希望的途径.
研究的目的:
- 评估和比较三种机器学习模型的性能:时间科尔莫戈罗夫-阿诺德网络 (TKAN),长期短期记忆 (LSTM) 和时间卷积网络 (TCN) 用于流量预测.
- 为了提高这些模型的可解释性和可靠性,使用夏普利添加式扩展 (SHAP).
- 评估模型在多步预测和不确定性分析方面的能力.
主要方法:
- 使用大型,经过验证的水文数据集,对TKAN,LSTM和TCN模型进行培训和验证.
- 应用夏普利添加式解释 (SHAP) 来评估模型的可解释性和可靠性.
- 使用平均绝对误差 (MAE) 和纳什-萨克利夫效率 (NSE) 评估预测准确度,并分析预测不确定性.
主要成果:
- 时间科尔莫戈罗夫-阿诺德网络 (TKAN) 的表现强,平均绝对误差 (MAE) 为5.799 m3/s,纳什-萨特克利夫效率 (NSE) 为0.958.
- 虽然TKAN的性能优于长短期记忆 (LSTM) (MAE: 8.865 m3/s,NSE: 0.942) 的性能,但它的精度略低于时间卷积网络 (TCN) (MAE: 5.706 m3/s,NSE: 0.961).
- 在长达三天的预测时间里,TKAN保持了强大的准确性,不确定性水平合理 (例如,3日预测的平均不确定性为35.02%,可靠性为95%).
结论:
- 机器学习模型,特别是TKAN和TCN,在流量预测准确性和效率方面提供了显著的改进.
- 整合SHAP提高了模型透明度,这对于建立水文应用中的信任和可靠性至关重要.
- 这些先进的ML方法为开发能够应对气候变化影响的适应性水资源管理系统提供了强大的工具.
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