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从有限的统计特征来估计外部模型性能的方法的广泛基准测试
Tal El-Hay1, Jenna M Reps2, Chen Yanover3
1KI Research Institute, Kfar Malal, Israel. talelh@kinstitute.org.il.
仅使用总结统计数据来估计外部模型的性能,可以准确地预测模型在新数据上的表现. 这种方法通过允许在没有患者级数据的情况下进行外部验证来促进预测模型的部署.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 外部验证对于评估预测模型的概括性至关重要.
- 访问外部患者级数据以进行验证往往受到限制.
- 现有的外部验证方法可能需要大量的数据.
研究的目的:
- 以一个新的方法进行基准测试,以仅使用总结统计数据来估计外部模型的性能.
- 在各种指标和数据集中评估该方法的准确性.
- 以有限的外部数据来证明评估模型可运输性的可行性.
主要方法:
- 拟议的方法是使用五个大型,异构的美国数据源进行基准测试的.
- 每个数据源顺序作为内部培训集,而其他数据源则作为外部验证集.
- 仅使用外部总结统计数据来估计业绩.
主要成果:
- 该方法准确地估计了跨多个指标的外部模型性能.
- 对差异化,校准和整体准确性的第95百分位误差很低 (0.03,0.08,0.0002和0.07).
- 这些发现证实了估计模型可运输性的可行性.
结论:
- 使用总结统计数据估计外部模型的性能是可行的和准确的.
- 这种方法可以通过简化外部验证来加速预测模型的部署.
- 该方法为在有限的数据访问的情况下评估模型通用性的实用解决方案.
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