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风暴浪潮预测和基于目标的气候变化适应风险管理沿着美国大西洋海岸
Marissa S Liang1, Zhifei Dong2, Susan Julius3
1USEPA, Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20460-0001.
概括
气候变化加剧了风和海平面上升,增加了沿海风暴潮的风险. 本研究使用SLOSH模型来量化这些风险,以便在美国大西洋沿岸更好地适应和应急规划.
科学领域:
- 沿海工程的工程.
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 水力动力学建模的方法
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了美国大西洋沿岸的风强度和海平面上升 (SLR).
- 风暴潮造成的沿海洪水威胁着基础设施和环境资产.
- 准确的风暴浪潮预测对于沿海适应和应急管理至关重要,但面临不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 开发基于客观的分析统计方法来量化风暴风险.
- 为了减少风暴潮预测中的不确定性,用于气候变化适应计划.
- 为风险评估和应急响应提供特定位置的风暴潮概率估计.
主要方法:
- 利用了国家海洋和大气管理局 (NOAA) 的海,湖和陆地风冲浪 (SLOSH) 模型.
- 模拟合成风以产生最大水 (MEOW) 和最大的最大值 (MOM) 值.
- 用经过验证的SLOSH模型输出对特定的适应目标和不确定性容忍进行分析的冲浪高度和时间进展.
主要成果:
- 模拟的MOM确定了对基础设施 (如废水厂) 和环境资产的长期气候风险.
- MEOW提供了特定位置的风暴潮概率估计,用于适应分析.
- 风浪概率曲线和时间进展为应急规划提供了定量概率.
结论:
- 拟议的方法有效量化了气候变化情景下的风暴浪潮风险.
- 该方法支持有根据的沿海适应规划,并加强应急响应准备.
- 案例研究证明了该方法对各种沿海资产和规划视野的实际应用.
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