按需服务作为火车站接入模式的市场潜力是什么?
Nejc Geržinič1, Oded Cats1, Niels van Oort1
1Department of Transport and Planning, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands.
概括
按需移动服务 (FLEX) 可以改善火车站的接入,特别是对前城市汽车司机来说. 在地方车站,FLEX主要与公共交通进行竞争,而在遥远车站则与汽车进行竞争.
科学领域:
- 运输科学 运输科学
- 城市规划是城市规划.
- 作为服务的移动性 (MaaS)
背景情况:
- 连接到火车站的第一/最后一英里是一个重大挑战.
- 按需移动服务提供了一个潜在的解决方案来弥合这一差距.
- 了解用户偏好对于成功的服务集成至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估按需移动服务 (FLEX) 的潜力,以改善火车站接入.
- 为了将FLEX与自行车,汽车和公共交通等传统的接入方式进行比较.
- 识别用户部分及其愿意采用FLEX的意愿.
主要方法:
- 进行了三步顺序的声明偏好调查.
- 估计了联合访问模式和火车站选择模型.
- 为了对人口进行细分,采用了潜在的类选择模型.
主要成果:
- 根据选择行为确定了四个不同的人口群体.
- 支付意愿较低的部分 (约50%的人口) 显示FLEX采用的可能性更高.
- 前城市汽车驾驶员成为最有可能采用FLEX的细分市场,考虑到他们目前的汽车使用情况.
结论:
- FLEX具有显著的潜力,可以提高火车站的可访问性,特别是对于特定的用户群体.
- 对于FLEX的竞争格局因距离而异:它与公共交通在当地接入方面竞争,与私人汽车在远距离接入方面竞争.
- 针对旧城市汽车司机和那些支付意愿较低的人的有针对性的策略可以推动FLEX的采用.
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