预计影响美国东海岸和加勒比海水源和水槽的湿度变化
Jorge Eiras-Barca1,2, José Carlos Fernández-Alvarez1,3,4, Gleisis Alvarez-Socorro1
1Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|January 29, 2025
概括
北美东海岸和墨西哥湾的水分来源将在本世纪末加剧,影响大气河流 (ARs) 和低水平喷气 (LLJs). 这些变化与降水量和海面温度的上升有关.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候建模气候模型
- 水文学 水文学
背景情况:
- 了解区域湿度传输对于气候变化影响评估至关重要.
- 北美东海岸 (ENA) 和墨西哥湾 (GM) 是受湿度动态影响的重要地区.
- 大气河流 (ARs) 和低水平喷流 (LLJs) 是极端天气事件的关键驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 分析ENA和GM的水源和水槽预测的变化.
- 为了调查突然的潮流传输事件的变化,如 ARs,大平原 LLJs (GPLLJs) 和加勒比 LLJs (CLLJs) 世纪中后期.
- 为观察和预测的水文变化提供季节性背景.
主要方法:
- 使用了FLEXPART拉格朗分散模型与WRF中等尺度欧利尔模型 (FLEXPART-WRF) 相结合.
- 分析了ENA和GM的水分源和水槽的变化.
- 检查了AR,GPLLJ和CLLJ的特征和强度.
主要成果:
- 预计ENA和GM都将成为更重要的水分来源.
- 预计GPLLJ和CLLJ水源的强度将增加.
- 观察到与冬季登陆ARs相关的湿度增加以及CLLJ影响的度变化.
- 变化在空间或时间上不均,需要季节性分析.
结论:
- 在水分供应方面,ENA和GM将发挥越来越重要的作用.
- 预计AR强度和LLJ湿度传输的增加将影响区域气候.
- 观测到的大陆降水和海面温度的增加为这些水文变化提供了背景.
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