1990-2021年甲状腺癌的全球趋势:基于GBD 2021年的分析
Endocrine-related cancer
|January 29, 2025
概括
全球甲状腺癌 (TC) 发病率正在上升,特别是在男性中,但由于医疗保健的改善,死亡率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 正在下降. 高体重指数 (BMI) 是一个越来越令人担忧的问题.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 甲状腺癌 (TC) 是一个重大的全球健康挑战.
- 了解其负担,风险因素和趋势对于有效的公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年评估甲状腺癌 (TC) 的全球负担.
- 分析TC与社会人口因素,性别,年龄和风险因素的关联.
- 预测未来的TC趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用2021年全球疾病负担数据分析TC发病率,死亡率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs).
- 评估风险因素并采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型来预测未来的趋势.
- 分析了不同人群的数据,按社会人口统计指数和地理区域分层.
主要成果:
- 在2021年,全球TC发病率为249,538例 (ASIR:2.91/100,000),东亚的发病率最高.
- 死亡率 (44,799例) 和DALY增加,特别是在南亚,高BMI是一个重要的贡献者,特别是在中东和北非.
- 人口增长是全球TC负担增加的主要驱动因素,尽管年龄标准化死亡率和DALY率下降.
结论:
- 全球TC发病率上升,特别是在男性中,而死亡率和DALYs由于改善的医疗保健和管理而下降.
- 高体重指数 (BMI) 是一个越来越重要的因素,有助于TC负担.
- 未来的预测表明,到2050年,TC发病率将继续上升,死亡率和DALY率下降,反映了治疗方面的进步.
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