可变的垂直陆地运动及其对海平面上升的影响 预测
Marin Govorcin1, David P S Bekaert1, Benjamin D Hamlington1
1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.
Science advances
|January 29, 2025
概括
沿海垂直陆地运动 (VLM) 显著影响海平面上升. 当地VLM估计,与区域估计不同,揭示了加利福尼亚州低估的海平面上升,这对于有效的沿海洪水管理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 地质科学 地质科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 沿海工程 沿海工程
背景情况:
- 沿海垂直陆地运动 (VLM) 对于准确的海平面上升 (SLR) 预测和洪水减缓计划至关重要.
- 目前的框架,如IPCC第六次评估报告,通常依赖于线性区域VLM估计,导致低估.
- 准确的VLM数据对于了解和管理沿海洪水风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了提供高分辨率,使用最新的卫星数据为加利福尼亚州提供本地VLM估计.
- 评估当前和未来当地VLM对SLR的贡献.
- 突出在沿海预测框架中区域VLM估计的不足.
主要方法:
- 利用高分辨率 (90米) 卫星数据,涵盖2015年至2023年的时间.
- 计算了加利福尼亚沿海地区的当地VLM费率.
- 在考虑非线性因素的情况下,分析了VLM对到2050年预测的SLR的影响.
主要成果:
- 区域VLM估计,旧金山和洛杉矶的SLR大大低于预期,到2050年预计增长可能翻一番.
- 受到碳化合物和地下水开采的影响,在洛杉矶和圣地亚哥部分地区的2050年SLR预测中引入高达0.4米的不确定性.
- 当地的VLM费率在加利福尼亚海岸上有很大差异.
结论:
- 当地VLM数据对于改进SLR预测和改善沿海管理策略是不可或缺的.
- 目前的海平面预测模型需要整合详细的本地VLM数据,以考虑非线性和不确定性.
- 有效的沿海适应需要纳入精确的VLM评估,以减轻未来的洪水风险.
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