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印度夏季季风期间极端降雨事件的物理特征的变化,基于缩小和偏差纠正的CMIP6模型

Stella Jes Varghese^1,2, Sreenivas Pentakota³, Pushpalatha Thadivalasa³

¹Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India. stella.varghese@gmail.com.

Scientific reports

|January 29, 2025

概括

未来的气候变化将显著加剧印度夏季季风的极端降雨事件 (ERE). 在高排放下,降雨强度和空间变化将显著增加,特别是在本世纪末的印度北部.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
气象学天气学
环境科学环境科学

背景情况:

印度夏季季风对于地区的水资源和农业至关重要.
了解季风降雨的未来变化,特别是极端事件,对于适应策略至关重要.

研究的目的:

评估印度夏季季风降雨和极端降雨事件 (ERE) 的未来预测,使用相结合模型对比项目6 (CMIP6) 模型.
分析各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 的变化及其对降雨强度和变化的影响.

主要方法:

利用偏差纠正和缩小的CMIP6模型来模拟历史的印度夏季季风降雨和ERE.
在四个SSP场景 (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5) 中使用百分点值来估计ERE的未来变化.
分析了季节性总降雨量,极端降雨强度和空间变化 (R99p) 的预测变化.

主要成果:

在高排放SSP5-8.5情景下,预计季风降雨总量将增加1.1倍,而极端降雨强度将在本世纪末增加1.3倍.
季节性降雨的空间变化率增加了1.2倍,极端降雨的空间变化率 (R99p) 显著增加了2.1倍.
在SSP5-8.5.5下,极端降雨强度尺度的温度是Clausius-Clapeyron比率的1.5-2倍. 预测显示区域性变化:由于云层影响,印度北部降雨量增加,印度南部降雨量减少.

结论:

气候变化,特别是在高排放场景下,将导致印度夏季季风降雨强度和变异性大幅扩大.
未来的预测表明,降雨变化存在显著的区域差异,极端事件在某些地区可能会增加,而在其他地区则会减少.
这些发现凸显了迫切需要采取气候适应措施,以应对强烈的季风极端事件及其对社会的影响.

关键词:

极端降雨事件的发生.印度夏季季风是印度的夏季季风.在NEX-GDDP-CMIP6模型中.共享的社会经济路径.

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