由于职业暴露导致肺癌的终身风险:对估计组件的系统分析
M Sommer1, F Heinzl1, P Scholz-Kreisel1
1Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Ingolstädter Landstrasse 1, 85764 Neuherberg, Germany.
Radiation research
|January 30, 2025
概括
估计暴露的肺癌风险是复杂的. 根据所选的风险模型和死亡率,终身超额绝对风险 (LEAR) 显著变化,影响辐射保护政策.
科学领域:
- 辐射研究的研究.
- 职业健康 职业健康 职业健康 职业健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 终身风险估计在辐射研究中至关重要.
- 矿工的职业暴露是研究的一个关键领域.
- 了解雷引起的肺癌风险对于公共卫生至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地评估由于职业暴露导致的肺癌终身超额绝对风险 (LEAR) 计算中的变化和不确定性.
- 为了比较不同与相关的肺癌风险模型和暴露场景.
- 分析各种组件对LEAR估计的影响及其对辐射保护的影响.
主要方法:
- 主要LEAR组件的系统变化:基线死亡率 (肺癌,所有原因),风险模型和暴露场景.
- 从矿工队伍中获得的七种相关的肺癌风险模型的比较.
- 分析职业暴露情景,包括工作水平月 (WLM) 和德国矿工队列数据.
- 进一步组件的敏感性分析和与其他终身风险指标 (ELR,REID,RADS) 的比较.
主要成果:
- 每个WLM的LEAR估计显示了实质性的变化 (0.6×10-4到超过8.0×10-4),受到风险模型选择的严重影响.
- 死亡率,特别是肺癌的死亡率,在所有模型中显著影响了每WLM的LEAR.
- 暴露场景对每个WLM的LEAR的影响最小,除了BEIR VI模型.
- 所有评估的终身风险指标都显示,在低至中等水平的暴露时,单调增加.
结论:
- 每个WLM估计的LEAR存在实质性的差异,强调需要仔细选择参考人口和死亡率.
- 与其他组件相比,选择终身风险衡量的影响是微不足道的.
- 这些发现在制定辐射保护政策时,在应用终身风险措施时需要仔细考虑.
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