评估和预测阿尔茨海默病的全球影响
Nanlong Zhang1, Shuren Chai1, Jixing Wang2
1Department of Emergency, Ningbo Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Ningbo, China.
Frontiers in public health
|January 30, 2025
概括
预计在1990年至2030年期间,阿尔茨海默病 (AD) 的全球负担将下降,发病率,死亡率和DALY率将下降. 然而,存在显著的区域和性别差异,需要针对阿尔茨海默病制定有针对性的公共卫生战略.
科学领域:
- 神经学 神经学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 阿尔茨海默病 (AD) 构成了全球重大健康挑战.
- 了解疾病的负担对于有效的公共卫生规划至关重要.
- 本研究分析了从1990年到2030年的AD趋势.
研究的目的:
- 评估从1990年到2030年阿尔茨海默病 (AD) 的全球负担.
- 专注于关键指标,包括发病率,死亡率和因残疾而调整的寿命年 (DALY).
- 识别不同人口中AD负担的趋势和差异.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 研究中的发生率,DALY和死亡率 (1990-2021) 的数据.
- 采用通用添加模型 (GAMs) 来预测2022年至2030年的AD负担.
- 根据性别,区域和社会人口指数 (SDI) 进行了基于性别的分析.
主要成果:
- 从2022-2030年开始,预计全球DALY (EAPC: -1.44),死亡率 (EAPC: -1.80) 和发病率 (EAPC: -1.27) 的下降.
- 确定了区域差异,安第斯拉丁美洲和加勒比地区显示出积极的DALY EAPC,而东欧显示出最低.
- 与SDI较低的地区相比,SDI较高的地区呈现出更大的AD负担 (ASIR,ASDR,DALY率).
结论:
- 预计到2030年,全球阿尔茨海默病负担将会下降.
- 在AD负担方面,仍然存在显著的性别和区域差异.
- 针对性干预和量身定制的公共卫生策略对于在不同的社会经济环境中解决AD至关重要.
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