使用机器学习预测转化为精神病:对Cannon的回应
Jason Smucny1, Tyrone D Cannon2,3, Carrie E Bearden4,5
1Department of Psychiatry, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, United States.
Frontiers in psychiatry
|January 30, 2025
概括
机器学习模型可以预测高风险个体的精神病转化. 然而,在一个数据集 (NAPLS-3) 上训练的模型在另一个数据集 (NAPLS-2) 上测试时显示精度降低,限制了临床应用.
科学领域:
- 神经科学是一个神经科学.
- 计算精神病学是一种计算精神病学.
背景情况:
- 机器学习模型在预测临床高风险 (CHR) 个体的精神病转化时表现出高准确度 (高达90%),使用北美Prodrome纵向研究-3 (NAPLS-3) 数据集.
- 在独立数据集上测试模型概括对于验证预测能力至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过对独立的NAPLS-2数据集进行测试,评估在NAPLS-3数据集上训练的机器学习模型的概括性.
- 评估相同的机器学习算法在研究数据的先前代上的性能.
主要方法:
- 使用了标准的机器学习算法.
- 在NAPLS-3数据集上训练模型,以预测精神病转化.
- 然后在NAPLS-2数据集上对训练过的模型进行测试.
主要成果:
- 在NAPLS-2和NAPLS-3参与者之间的特征中观察到显著差异.
- 所有机器学习模型都表现得超出了机会,天真贝叶斯和随机森林显示了最好的结果.
- 在NAPLS-2数据集上的模型性能没有复制仅使用NAPLS-3数据集所看到的高精度.
结论:
- 在一个数据集上训练的机器学习模型可以概括为独立的数据集,但性能可能会降低.
- 目前的模型性能不足以用于心理病预测的直接临床应用.
- 数据集之间参与者特征的差异可能导致了性能限制.
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