弗吉尼亚州的死亡率和日间温度范围
Robert E Davis1, Owen Himmel2, Parker K Sims2
1Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA, 22904-4123, USA. red3u@virginia.edu.
International journal of biometeorology
|January 30, 2025
概括
非常高的日间温度范围 (DTR) 日增加死亡风险,特别是在老年人中,效应持续数天. 这些罕见的春天日子,气温明显下降,与呼吸和心血管问题有关.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候科学是气候科学.
背景情况:
- 昼间温度范围 (DTR) 是衡量每日温度波动的尺度.
- 以前的研究主要集中在高温对健康的影响上,对DTR的关注较少.
- 了解DTR的影响对公共卫生至关重要,特别是随着气候模式的变化.
研究的目的:
- 在七个主要的弗吉尼亚大都会地区调查日间温度范围 (DTR) 和每日死亡率之间的关联.
- 量化与高DTR事件相关的死亡相对风险.
- 为了确定影响死亡率的高DTR天的时间滞后效应和特征.
主要方法:
- 利用了弗吉尼亚州七个大型大都市地区的2005年至2020年的数据.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 来分析这种关系.
- 在统计模型中控制环境温度和湿度.
主要成果:
- 在DTR非常高的日子里,观察到相对死亡风险的显著增加.
- 在高DTR事件后,对死亡风险确定了持续数天的短暂滞后效应.
- 高DTR日,罕见且经常发生在春天,与呼吸道和心血管死亡率升高有关,特别影响老年人.
结论:
- 非常高的DTR是每日死亡率的独立风险因素,特别是在春天.
- 将高DTR与死亡率联系在一起的生理机制需要进一步研究,因为反应类似于高温.
- 研究结果表明,适应温度波动对心血管和呼吸系统健康起着作用,强调需要制定针对DTR极端情况的公共卫生战略.
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