模拟流行病学动态,通过分数顺序导数运算符进行伪恢复,并采取最佳控制措施
Samson Olaniyi1, Furaha M Chuma2, Ramoshweu S Lebelo3
1Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria.
PloS one
|January 30, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一种分数顺序的数学模型,以了解通过伪恢复传播的传染病. 整合记忆效应可以通过预防和治疗策略显著减少疾病传播.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 动态系统 动态系统
背景情况:
- 传染病建模通常简化了疾病动态,可能忽视了诸如记忆效应等关键因素.
- 伪恢复,即个体看起来已经康复,但仍然可以传播疾病,这带来了独特的建模挑战.
研究的目的:
- 为传染病中伪恢复动态开发一种新的分数顺序数学模型.
- 研究记忆效应对疾病传播和控制的影响.
- 分析依赖时间的预防和治疗策略的有效性,使用最佳控制理论.
主要方法:
- 开发一种使用分数顺序导数运算符 (卡普托类型) 的确定性数学模型.
- 使用巴纳赫固定点理论对模型定位的定性分析.
- 基本复制数的灵敏度分析,以了解参数的影响.
- 应用分数最佳控制理论和庞特里亚金的最大原则来优化战略.
主要成果:
- 分数顺序模型成功地将记忆效应纳入伪恢复动态.
- 敏感性分析揭示了影响疾病传播的关键参数.
- 最佳控制模拟表明,与无记忆方法相比,依赖记忆的策略显著减少了疾病传播.
结论:
- 分数式微积分为模拟传染病中的记忆效应提供了一个强大的框架.
- 综合预防和治疗策略,特别是考虑到记忆,在控制疾病传播方面非常有效.
- 该研究强调了在流行病学模型中考虑记忆对于准确的预测和干预措施至关重要.
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