地缘社交媒体在美国县级政治集群中的预警能力:观察性研究
Dorian Arifi1,2, Bernd Resch1,2,3, Mauricio Santillana4,5
1Department of Geoinformatics, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.
JMIR infodemiology
|January 30, 2025
概括
地理社交媒体的帖子可以预测COVID-19的激增,在不同政治派别的有效性上有所不同. 随着时间的推移,早期预警信号减弱了,特别是在民主党和共和党县,强调需要考虑未来系统的政治信仰.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 针对COVID-19的非药物干预措施带来了重大的社会成本.
- 地缘社交媒体数据显示,预测健康危机的可能性很大.
- 之前的研究缺乏对地缘社交媒体早期预警能力的政治影响的理解.
研究的目的:
- 评估地理社交媒体的COVID-19早期预警能力如何随着时间的推移而变化.
- 检查不同政治信仰的美国各县的差异.
- 研究政治集群对流行病学预测的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用选举数据将美国县分为民主党,共和党和摇摆政治集群.
- 分析了6个COVID-19浪潮 (2020年2月-2022年4月) 的地缘社交媒体帖子数据.
- 测量了地理社交媒体信号和COVID-19病例激增之间的时间延迟和时间序列相关性.
主要成果:
- 地缘社交媒体数据在共和党县平均21天,民主党县14.6天,摇摆县24.2天之前的COVID-19病例.
- 早期预警信号通常在6个波中的5个波中先发出病例.
- 随着时间的推移,特别是在民主党和共和党县,随着信号强度的下降和趋势话题干扰,观察到引入时间的减少.
结论:
- 地缘社交媒体数据对COVID-19的早期预警能力受到县级政治集群的影响.
- 未来的流行病早期预警系统应纳入政治信仰数据.
- 需要进一步研究信号强度下降和趋势主题对可靠性的影响.
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