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在未来的变暖水平下,全球水资源缺口在未来的变暖水平下
Lorenzo Rosa1, Matteo Sangiorgio2
1Biosphere Sciences and Engineering, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, USA. lrosa@carnegiescience.edu.
Nature communications
|January 30, 2025
概括
气候变化显著扩大了水资源缺口,增加了水资源的稀缺性. 未来的变暖将加剧这种情况,迫切需要气候减缓和强有力的水资源管理战略,以应对全球水资源压力.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球水资源产生影响.
- 了解水资源缺口 (不可持续的用水) 是适应的关键.
- 在不同的变暖情景下量化水资源短缺至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化当前和未来的全球水资源缺口.
- 评估1.5°C和3°C升温情景对水资源短缺的影响.
- 为了突出水差预测的区域差异.
主要方法:
- 对水需求和供应的多模型分析.
- 纳入两个不同的未来变暖情景 (1.5°C和3°C).
- 基线和预计的水隙量化,以公里3/年为单位.
主要成果:
- 基线全球水资源缺口为457.9公里3/年.
- 预计水缺口的增加为5.8% (1.5°C) 和14.7% (3°C).
- 在预测中观察到显著的区域差异和模型变化.
结论:
- 气候变化加剧了水资源短缺,而更高的气候变暖水平造成了更大的影响.
- 各国和盆地之间存在不平等的适应需求.
- 紧急的气候缓解和强有力的水资源管理对于应对日益严重的水资源短缺至关重要.
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