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Updated: May 30, 2025

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埃塞俄比亚结核病和人类免疫缺陷病毒的联合时空建模,采用贝叶斯的等级方法

Legesse Kassa Debusho¹, Leta Lencha Gemechu²

¹Department of Statistics, University of South Africa, c/o Christiaan de Wet Road & Pioneer Avenue, Private Bag X6, Florida, 1710, Johannesburg, South Africa. debuslk@unisa.ac.za.

BMC public health

|January 30, 2025

概括

这项研究分析了2015-2018年埃塞俄比亚的艾滋病毒和结核病分布,揭示了空间相似性和时间趋势. 建议采取综合干预措施来控制这两种疾病.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
公共卫生公共卫生
空间分析空间分析

背景情况:

艾滋病毒和结核病 (结核病) 在全球范围内构成重大公共卫生挑战.
了解这些疾病的时空分布对于有效的控制策略至关重要.

研究的目的:

评估2015年至2018年间埃塞俄比亚艾滋病毒和结核病在地区层面的空间和时间分布.
确定艾滋病毒和结核病发病率的模式和潜在的同时发生情况.

主要方法:

利用埃塞俄比亚联邦卫生部 (2015-2018) 结核病例通知和艾滋病毒患者数量的综合数据.
采用贝叶斯的等级方法,并采用联合的时空建模.
使用R-INLA安装了6个模型,并通过偏差信息标准和交叉验证选择了最佳模型.

主要成果:

大约53%的结核病和艾滋病毒发病率变化归因于共享的时间,艾滋病毒特异性的空间和时空相互作用效应.
从2015年至2017年,艾滋病毒风险呈现上升趋势,然后在2018年略有下降;结核病风险保持相对不变.
共享相对风险的空间分布反映了结核病特异性风险,而艾滋病毒显示了更多的高风险地区.

结论:

在埃塞俄比亚各个地区的艾滋病毒和结核病分布中展示了空间相似性.
观察到的共享相对风险的时间模式和空间分布与HIV特定风险密切相关.
强调需要综合艾滋病毒和结核病监测和干预措施,因为共同的风险模式.

关键词:

贝叶斯的层次结构是贝叶斯的.艾滋病病毒艾滋病病毒艾滋病病毒共同的时间空间建模.普森回归是一种回归式.相对风险是一种相对风险.结核病是一种疾病.

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