相关信息对开创性决策的影响
Megan Stickler1, William Ott1, Zachary P Kilpatrick2
1Department of Mathematics, University of Houston, Houston, Texas 77004, USA.
概括
在群体决策中,相关证据会降低准确性,尤其对早期决策者来说. 即使是理想的观察者在共享证据时也会变得不那么准确,这会影响小组决策的准确性.
科学领域:
- 认知科学 认知科学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 社会心理学 社会心理学
背景情况:
- 规范模型通常假定在集团决策中存在独立的观察结果.
- 现实世界的场景涉及个人从共同的,非独立的来源收集证据.
- 了解相关证据对组准确性的影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究相关证据对理想观察者群体的决策准确性的影响.
- 在证据不独立时,确定时间决策顺序如何影响准确性.
- 分析相关证据对个人和团体决策的影响.
主要方法:
- 对离散和宏观证据收集模型的分析.
- 具有相关证据的理想观察者的数学建模.
- 模拟不同时间顺序的集团决策过程.
主要成果:
- 相关证据导致决策准确性取决于时间决策顺序.
- 一个小组中的第一个决定者不如一个孤独的观察者那么准确.
- 早期决策者与晚期决策者相比,其准确性较低,尽管决策标准相同.
结论:
- 相对相关的证据引入了集团决策准确性的系统偏见.
- 时间顺序在具有共享证据的群体中显著影响准确性.
- 调查结果提供了超越特定整合机制的集团决策动态的见解.
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