在GUTS模型上对视觉评估和定量适合度指标的比较适合GUTS模型
Barbara Bauer1, Alexander Singer1, Oliver Jakoby1
1RIFCON GmbH, Hirschberg, Germany.
Environmental toxicology and chemistry
|January 31, 2025
概括
这项研究证实,定量指标与专家对环境风险评估 (ERA) 中毒动力学-毒动力学 (TKTD) 模型表现的视觉评估一致. 衍生好的适用性 (GoF) 标准支持目前评估TKTD模型的做法.
科学领域:
- 生态毒理学 生态毒理学
- 环境风险评估环境风险评估
- 计算毒理学计算毒理学
背景情况:
- 毒动力学-毒动力学 (TKTD) 模型对于植物保护产品的环境风险评估 (ERA) 是至关重要的.
- 评估TKTD模型预测需要定性视觉评估和定量适合性 (GoF) 度量.
- 了解专家视觉感知和定量指标之间的对齐对于可靠的模型评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定模型性能的定量标准是否与人类视觉感知保持一致.
- 识别影响模型合适感知的评估者特征.
- 在ERA中为TKTD模型建立可靠的GoF切割标准.
主要方法:
- 一项匿名在线调查与64名志愿者进行了生态毒理学和TKTD建模.
- 参与者对70多个普遍统一值生存模型 (GUTS) 模型的校准和验证匹配进行了排名.
- 模型匹配得分基于时间解析的生存数据和总量-反应曲线.
主要成果:
- 剂量反应曲线表示通常比时间序列图表得分更高.
- 定量指数和对时间序列数据的视觉评估显示,对模型性能存在普遍共识.
- 视觉评估得分最好通过GoF指标的组合来预测,其衍生的切断标准与专家共识和监管建议保持一致.
结论:
- 目前在ERA的定量GUTS评估实践与实践人员对动态模型行为的视觉判断一致.
- 该研究提供了支持当前模型性能评估方法可靠性的证据.
- 既定的 GoF 标准提高了对 TKTD 环境安全模型评估的信任.
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