在埃及重新出现的埃及 (林奈氏菌):在气候变化下预测分布变化
Mustafa M Soliman1, Magdi S A El-Hawagry1, Abdallah M Samy2,3
1Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt.
Medical and veterinary entomology
|January 31, 2025
概括
埃迪斯埃吉普蒂蚊子是登革热等疾病的载体,正在埃及重新出现. 预计到2070年,气候变化将大大扩大其适合息地,需要更新的控制策略.
科学领域:
- 医学昆虫学 医学昆虫学
- 环境科学环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 埃塞斯埃吉普蒂,像登革热这样的树状病毒的主要载体,于1963年从埃及被消灭.
- Ae. 的重新出现. 自2011年以来,埃吉普蒂和登革热的爆发在埃及造成了重大公共卫生问题.
研究的目的:
- 模拟目前和未来的Ae分布. 埃及的埃及人.
- 确定影响AE的关键环境因素. 埃及的息地适宜性.
主要方法:
- 使用了与本地发生数据的最大 (MaxEnt) 建模.
- 综合生物气候,人为和生物环境变量.
- 使用AUC (0.975) 和TSS (0.789) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 息地适合性的关键决定因素包括人类人口密度,年降水量和NDVI.
- 目前适宜的息地集中在尼罗河谷,尼罗河三角洲,法尤姆盆地,红海沿岸和西奈南部.
- 预计的气候变化表明适合息地的显著扩张,特别是在尼罗河三角洲.
结论:
- 到2050年和2070年,适合AE的息地. 据预测,埃及人的死亡率将增加61%-69%.
- 这些发现对于在埃及制定有效的病媒控制和疾病预防策略至关重要.
- 由于埃及的全球旅游意义,迫切需要更新战略.
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