加拿大的偏差校正高分辨率温度和降水预测
Hebatallah M Abdelmoaty1,2, Chandra Rupa Rajulapati3, Sofia D Nerantzaki4
1Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada.
Scientific data
|February 1, 2025
概括
一个新的数据库为加拿大提供高分辨率的气候预测,直到2100. 本资源使用半参数量子映射 (SPQM) 来偏差纠正气候模型数据,以更好地评估和规划风险.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 高分辨率的气候预测对于加拿大的有效决策,风险评估和规划至关重要.
- 现有的气候模型数据通常需要偏差校正,以准确地表示观察到的条件.
研究的目的:
- 为加拿大开发一个广泛的数据库,提供高分辨率 (0.1°) 的每日降水和温度预测,直至2100年.
- 为了纠正偏差,结合模型相互比较项目,第6期 (CMIP6) 气候模型输出使用一种新的方法.
主要方法:
- 开发并应用半参数量子映射 (SPQM) 方法论用于偏差校正.
- 利用四条共享的社会经济路径 (SSP) 来分析未来的气候场景.
- 编制了一个全面的数据库 (SPQM-CMIP6-CAN),包括许多气候模型模拟.
主要成果:
- SPQM 方法有效地重现了观察到的边缘性质,趋势和变化.
- 该数据库包括来自34个气候模型的693个降水模拟和来自27个气候模型的581个温度模拟.
- 预测每天延伸到2100年,加拿大的分辨率为0.1°.
结论:
- SPQM-CMIP6-CAN数据库为加拿大的水文,环境和生态研究提供了有价值的高分辨率资源.
- 该数据库有助于量化与不同气候模型,配置和未来场景相关的不确定性.
- 这些发现支持通过提高数据可访问性和可靠性来改进气候变化适应和减缓战略.
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