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在武汉不同SSP-RCP场景下,蓝绿空间模式演变和碳储存的时空模拟
Guiyuan Li1,2,3, Wangzhen Wang4,5,6, Bowen Li7
1Civil Engineering school, Architecture and Environment, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan, 430068, China. lgy@hbut.edu.cn.
Scientific reports
|February 1, 2025
概括
预计到2060年,武汉的城市化将减少蓝绿空间和碳储存. 在SSP126情景中,影响最小,而SSP585则导致这些重要自然资源的损失最大.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 气候变化建模模型
背景情况:
- 快速的社会经济增长推动了土地利用的变化和二氧化碳排放的增加,给全球气候和健康带来了挑战.
- 紧急的气候缓解和适应战略是可持续发展所必需的.
- 蓝绿空间在碳储存和城市生态系统健康方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
研究的目的:
- 模拟到2060年武汉蓝绿空间模式的演变.
- 预测不同共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 和代表度路径 (RCP) 场景下的碳储存的空间分布.
- 调查推动蓝绿空间和碳储存变化的机制.
主要方法:
- 利用因果逻辑框架连接气候变化,蓝绿空间模式和碳排放.
- 采用了系统动力学 (SD) 模型,补丁生成土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 模型和生态系统服务和权衡的综合估值 (InVEST) 模型.
- 在三种CMIP6SSP-RCP场景 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585) 下模拟土地利用变化和碳储存,从2030年到2060年.
主要成果:
- 预计在未来30年,武汉的蓝绿空间模式将在所有场景中下降.
- 预计绿色空间将减少,而蓝色空间可能会出现边际增长.
- 预计碳储存将由于缩小蓝绿空间而下降,损失范围从7.18 Tg (SSP126) 到11.67 Tg (SSP585).
结论:
- 该研究强调,到2060年,武汉的蓝绿空间和相关的碳储存能力将大幅下降.
- 不同的SSP-RCP场景表明不同程度的影响,SSP585导致了最实质性的损失.
- 这些发现对于优化土地利用,促进绿色发展和为武汉的城市气候适应规划提供信息至关重要.
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