对12种现有的脊髓转移患者的生存预测模型进行外部验证
B J J Bindels1, R H Kuijten1, O Q Groot1
1Department of Orthopedic Surgery, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
概括
现有的脊髓转移生存预测模型表现不佳. 这些工具需要与当前数据进行重新校准,以便可靠地告知患者和临床医生的决策.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 临床决策支持 临床决策支持
背景情况:
- 脊髓转移的生存预测模型有助于共享决策.
- 这些模型的外部验证对于评估它们在现实世界中的适用性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 对脊髓转移的患者进行外部验证,对现有的12种生存预测模型进行验证.
- 评估这些模型的歧视和校准.
主要方法:
- 一项前性队列研究,利用953名脊髓转移患者的回顾性数据.
- 对12个模型的外部验证,预测了3,6个月和12个月的生存期.
- 通过曲线下的面积 (AUC) 评估歧视;通过拦截和斜率评估校准.
主要成果:
- 验证了12种模型,其AUC从0.59到0.81.81不等.
- 修订后的Katagiri,Bollen和Oswestry脊柱风险指数 (OSRI) 模型显示了最高的歧视.
- 十二个模型中没有一个显示出适当的校准.
结论:
- 现有的脊髓转移的生存预测模型显示差到公平的歧视和差的校准.
- 建议使用最近的患者数据对这些模型进行重新校准,以提高临床效用.
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