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在未来气候和土地利用变化下,陆地脊椎动物食物网的全球预测
Xiyang Hao1, Marcel Holyoak2, Zhicheng Zhang1
1State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-Ecosystems, College of Ecology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, P.R. China.
Global change biology
|February 3, 2025
概括
由于气候和土地使用的转变,到2100年全球粮食网络将面临剧烈的结构性变化. 预计陆地脊椎动物的食物网将大幅缩小,影响生物多样性和生态系统功能.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物多样性科学 生物多样性科学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 食物网对于生态系统的运作至关重要,但全球范围内的变化仍未得到充分研究.
- 数据的局限性阻碍了在环境压力下对食物网络结构变化的全面分析.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2100年全球超级食物网络在陆地脊椎动物的结构变化.
- 研究气候变暖和土地利用变化对食物网动态的影响.
主要方法:
- 系统地收集有关物种饮食,特征,分布和家族遗传学的数据.
- 应用机器学习模型来预测食物网的变化.
- 气候和土地利用变化影响的空间显式建模.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,陆地脊椎动物的食物网大小将减少32%,食物链的减少将达到49%.
- 预计模块化,捕食者普遍性和食用群多样性减少>25%.
- 物种的分散可能提供一些缓解,但突出区域食物网的脆弱性.
结论:
- 全球陆地脊椎动物的食物网将经历重大,异质的结构变化.
- 气候和土地利用变化对食物网的完整性和生物多样性构成重大威胁.
- 综合经验数据的先进建模为未来的生态变化提供了可靠的预测.
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