巴西肺结核的发病率和死亡率:趋势和预测,2002-2034年
Jefferson Felipe Calazans Batista1, Vitória Steffany de Oliveira Santos1, Marcos Antonio Almeida-Santos1
1Tiradentes University, Health and Environment Post-graduation Program, Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil.
IJID regions
|February 3, 2025
概括
预计巴西结核病发病率将增加,预计男性的死亡率将更高. 北部地区面临最严重的前景,这表明需要加强公共卫生工作,以实现全球目标.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 肺结核 (TB) 仍然是一个重大的全球卫生挑战.
- 巴西的结核病负担很大,需要持续的监测和趋势分析.
研究的目的:
- 分析2002年至2019年巴西肺结核发病率和死亡率的时间趋势.
- 预测这些趋势到2034年,以告知未来的公共卫生战略.
主要方法:
- 一项生态研究利用来自巴西疾病通报和死亡率系统 (2002-2019) 的结核病例数据.
- 在2034年之前的趋势预测中使用了年龄周期队列建模,并使用了Joinpoint分析来估计百分比变化.
主要成果:
- 巴西在2002-2019年期间记录了超过100万例结核病例和76,000例死亡.
- 预测显示,到2034年,结核病发病率在两性之间都将增加,男性死亡率也将上升.
- 北部地区的发病率和死亡率最高,其中男性患病风险增加和女性人口增长的贡献很大.
结论:
- 巴西的结核病预测趋势不利于实现全球结核病消除目标.
- 北方地区面临着一个特别令人担忧的情况,需要有针对性的干预.
- 两性发病率增加和男性死亡率上升需要紧急和加强的公共卫生干预措施.
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