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预测终端骨的潜在分布 Retz. 在当前和未来的气候情景下,中国的气候变化

Zhang-Hong Dong^1,2, Hua Jiang^1,2, Wei Zhang^1,2

¹Forestry and Grassland Technique Extention Station of Baoshan City Baoshan China.

Ecology and evolution

|February 3, 2025

概括

预计气候变化将扩大中国的Terminalia chebula适合的息地. 这项研究预测了未来的分布,以帮助保护和可持续使用这一重要的药用植物.

科学领域:

生态建模和保护生物学
生物地理和气候变化对植物物种的影响

背景情况:

气候变化改变了物种的息地和空间分布.
预测建模对于评估药用植物的适用性和保护至关重要.

研究的目的:

为了预测Terminalia chebula Retz的当前和未来的空间分布. 在中国. 在中国.
评估2050年代和2070年代在不同气候变化场景 (RCP4.5和RCP8.5) 下的息地适应性.
为保护和可持续利用Terminalia chebula资源提供见解.

主要方法:

使用地理信息系统 (GIS) 和MaxEnt模型.
纳入了来自WorldClim.的73个事件记录和8个环境因素.
使用接收器操作特征 (ROC) 曲线下的面积 (AUC) 和刀试验评估模型性能.

主要成果:

模型的性能非常出色 (AUC > 0.9).
生物11和生物4被确定为主要影响环境变量.
目前T. chebula适合的息地大约为29.14 × 10^4平方公里 (2.78%的中国陆地面积).
预计未来的气候变化将使T. chebula的适合范围向北和向东扩大,在2050年代和2070年代的RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,适合区域总体增加.

结论:

预计气候变化将增加Terminalia chebula在中国的潜在生长范围.
未来的预测表明适合息地的扩张,特别是在北方和东部地区.
这些发现为有效管理,保护和可持续利用Terminalia chebula提供了理论基础.

关键词:

马克森特模型的模型.切布拉的终点 (Terminalia chebula) 是一个大脑的终点.气候变化气候变化气候变化息地的适宜性息地的适宜性种类分布种类分布

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