来自英格兰南部的Taxus树环年代表揭示了过去三个世纪的西欧水气候变化
Tatiana Bebchuk1, Andy K Moir2,3, Tito Arosio1
1Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN UK.
Climate dynamics
|February 3, 2025
概括
西欧最近的水气候极端,包括热浪和干旱,可能仍然处于过去的自然变化范围之内. 叶树环数据重建了310年的气候,显示了过去的干旱模式.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 登德罗年代学 登德罗年代学
- 欧洲气候历史 欧洲气候历史
背景情况:
- 人为全球变暖预计将加剧欧洲的热浪和干旱.
- 了解过去的气候变化对于对现代趋势和极端情况的理解至关重要.
- 需要每年解决和绝对日期的气候重建来评估自然气候变异性.
研究的目的:
- 在过去的310年里,利用树环数据重建了西欧的水气候变化.
- 将当前的干旱和降水趋势置于长期自然变化的背景下.
- 评估过去极端水气候的频率和强度.
主要方法:
- 从英格兰南部的22个地点收集了153个 (Taxus baccata L.) 树环宽度 (TRW) 系列.
- 与仪器性降水和干旱指数相关的TRW时间表 (四月至七月降水,七月干旱指数).
- 重建了年间到多十年的春夏降水和中夏干旱变化,使用剩余和标准TRW时间表.
主要成果:
- TRW 年代表显示了与4月至7月降水 (r > 0.7) 和7月干旱指数 (r > 0.59) 的显著正相关性.
- 重建成功捕获了西欧报告的大部分夏季干旱和暴雨,可以追溯到公元1710年.
- 在18世纪末和20世纪中叶,严重的干旱时期被确定为严重的干旱.
结论:
- 来自树环的水气候重建提供了对西欧过去气候变化的宝贵见解.
- 最近极端水气候的频率和强度很可能在过去的自然变化范围内.
- 叶树环数据为重建过去的干旱和降雨模式提供了强大的代理.
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