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Updated: May 29, 2025

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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评估上印度河盆地的气候敏感性,使用完全分布式,基于物理的水文建模和多模型气候组合方法
Hamna Hasan1, Muhammad Zia Ur Rahman Hashmi2, Syed Imran Ahmed3
1Department of Civil Engineering, NED University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan. hamnahasan@neduet.edu.pk.
Scientific reports
|February 3, 2025
概括
预计气候变化将增加巴基斯坦上印度河流域的水资源,原因是雪融量增加. 这可以减轻水压,但也增加了洪水风险,需要改善水资源管理和基础设施.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 上印度河盆地 (UIB) 面临潜在的水资源短缺,原因是气候变化影响雪和冰川融化.
- 该地区的水资源对巴基斯坦下游地区至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候场景下,调查UIB的水文变化和水资源变化.
- 预测流程变化到21世纪末.
主要方法:
- 使用一个合的水文/液压模型 (MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO RIVER),与流量数据进行校准.
- 在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景中,从协调区域气候降级实验 (CORDEX) 采用了偏差校正的气候预测.
主要成果:
- 预计到本世纪末,流量将增加86% (RCP 4.5) 和97% (RCP 8.5).
- 预计变暖趋势 (2.3-4°C) 将大大促进融雪,特别是冬季流量将在历史上增加300%.
- 根据RCP 8.5的年度平均供水量估计为4500 m3/s.
结论:
- 增加水的可用性可能会减轻水压,但会带来严重的洪水风险.
- 加强防洪和储存对于管理增加的水资源和减轻下游地区的洪水风险至关重要.
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