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2004年至2019年中国牧场和农业地区人类血病的变化趋势:Joinpoint的回归分析
Xiaojuan Ma1,2, Zhuo Liu1,2, Yuhui Geng1,2
1School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China.
BMC infectious diseases
|February 3, 2025
概括
在中国,人类血病发病率正在上升,特别是在农业地区. 虽然牧场地区的增长率较高,但农业和混合农业地区的增长速度最快,需要在全国范围内加强监督和控制措施.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 在中国,人类血病发病率显著增加.
- 了解牧场和农业地区的区域趋势至关重要.
- 关于不同土地使用类型的特定发病率模式的数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国 (2004年至2019年) 人类百菌病的年度和月度发病率趋势.
- 为了确定与血病发病率相关的时间因素.
- 为了比较牧场,农业/牧场和农业地区之间的发病趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用了2004-2019年关于人类血病例的国家数据.
- 对不同种类面积的计算年百分比变化 (APC).
- 应用Joinpoint回归分析用于年度和月度趋势评估.
主要成果:
- 报告的病例超过569,000,在2014年达到顶峰,总体上呈上升趋势 (AAPC=6.3%).
- 牧场地区的发病率较高,但农业 (APC=9.4%) 和农业/牧场 (APC=7.7%) 地区的发病率较高.
- 病例发生全年,集中在3月至7月,每月发病率增加1月至5月,下降趋势5月至12月.
结论:
- 人类血病发病率在牧场地区较高,但在农业和混合农业/牧场地区的增长速度更快.
- 加强流行病监测对于关键领域至关重要.
- 全国范围的预防和控制措施需要加强,以应对上升的趋势.
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