在气候变化下基于生态系统服务的可持续发展的时空空间模拟
Bao Zhou1,2, Guoping Chen2, Junsan Zhao2
1College of Electronic and Information Engineering, West Anhui University, Luan, China.
PloS one
|February 4, 2025
概括
这项关于卡斯特地区的研究表明,气候变化对土地利用和生态系统服务 (ESs) 有影响. 虽然水产和土壤保留可能会增加,但息地质量和碳储存预计会下降,影响可持续发展目标 (SDGs).
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 由于其脆弱的生态系统,卡斯特地区面临着独特的挑战.
- 气候变化对土地利用和生态系统服务 (ESs) 产生重大影响.
- 评估可持续发展目标 (SDG) 指数对于区域规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在气候变化下的云南东南部的地地区探索ESs的时空分布.
- 根据ESs计算一个SDG指数.
- 模拟未来的土地使用变化 (LUC) 并评估不同气候场景下的ES.
主要方法:
- 采用了用于LUC模拟的补丁生成土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 模型.
- 在ES评估中采用了生态系统服务和权衡的综合估值 (InVEST) 模型.
- 基于生态系统服务计算了一个SDG指数.
主要成果:
- 到2035年,土地利用变化趋势在各个场景中是一致的,强度和配置各不相同.
- 在所有情景下,水产和土壤保留增加,而息地质量和碳储存下降.
- 可持续发展目标指数显示区域差异,热点在植被地区,冷点在城市地区.
结论:
- 气候变化对卡斯特地区的 LUC 和 ES 产生重大影响.
- 可持续发展目标指数突显了可持续发展潜力的不均,需要有针对性的干预措施.
- 发现提供了科学证据,用于保护生态和土地利用规划在地地区.
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