开发和验证中年和老年中国人高脂血症风险预测模型,使用2015年查尔斯数据
Li-Xiang Zhang1, Shan-Bing Hou2, Fang-Fang Zhao3
1Division of Life Science and Medicine, Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of USTC, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China.
Frontiers in public health
|February 5, 2025
概括
一种新的诺米图模型有效地预测了45岁以上的中国成年人患高脂血症的风险,使用BMI和血糖等因素. 这种工具有助于在老年人群中早期识别和预防高脂血症.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 心血管健康 心血管健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 超脂血是中年和老年人中一个重要的健康问题.
- 需要有效的查工具来识别有风险的个人,以便及时进行干预.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证45岁及以上中国成年人高脂血症风险的预测模型.
- 为识别高风险个体提供可访问的查工具.
主要方法:
- 来自2015年中国健康与退休长度研究 (CHARLS) 的6629名参与者 (年龄45岁以上) 的分析.
- 使用LASSO回归和多变量物流回归来识别独立的风险因素.
- 使用 Stata 17.0.0 构建了一个名ogram 预测模型.
主要成果:
- 超脂血症的患病率为26.32%.
- 确定了独立的危险因素:体重指数 (BMI),禁食血糖,血清尿酸,C反应蛋白和白细胞计数.
- 诺米图实现了0.717的AUC,证明了良好的预测歧视和临床适用性.
结论:
- 开发的诺莫格拉姆模型是一个经过验证的,有效的工具,用于预测中年和老年中国成年人的高脂血症风险.
- 该模型可以帮助医疗保健专业人员进行有针对性的查和预防策略.
- 这种工具的实施有可能减少目标人口中的超脂血症发病率.
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