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确定不同SSP-RCPs场景的优先森林保护和恢复区域
Miaomiao Liu1, Shuang Liu1, Raohan Tang1
1College of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, 350002, China.
Journal of environmental management
|February 5, 2025
概括
确定优先保护和恢复森林地区是缓解气候变化的关键. 本研究使用景观指数和未来情景来确定森林保护和再生的关键区域,增强生物多样性保护的努力.
科学领域:
- 生态建模和保护科学.
- 景观生态学和空间分析.
- 气候变化缓解和森林管理.
背景情况:
- 森林保护和恢复对于减缓气候变化至关重要.
- 在科学上为这些努力选择优先领域仍然是一个挑战.
- 了解森林连接的驱动因素对于有效规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 构建森林景观结构和功能连接指数.
- 为了确定这些连接模式背后的驱动力.
- 在各种气候和社会经济情景下模拟未来的土地利用变化,并确定最佳的森林开发途径.
主要方法:
- 使用景观指标,主要组件分析和最小累积电阻建模构建结构和功能连接指数.
- 地质探测器的应用,以确定森林连接的关键驱动因素.
- 利用补丁生成土地使用模拟模型进行基于场景的土地使用预测和图形理论来确定优先区域.
主要成果:
- 高度和夜间照明显著影响结构连接,而夜间照明和GDP则推动功能连接.
- SSP1-RCP2.6情景显示森林连接性增加,被确定为最佳途径.
- 在最佳情景下,为2030年,2040年和2050年量化了森林保护和恢复的具体区域.
结论:
- 高度,夜间照明和GDP是影响森林景观连接的关键因素.
- SSP1-RCP2.6情景为森林连接和发展提供了最有利的条件.
- 该研究为确定优先森林保护和恢复区域提供了强有力的框架,支持生物多样性和气候减缓目标.
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