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气候变化和水需求对大下方亚热带河流域流量的影响
Chao Deng1, Hong Zhang1, David P Hamilton2
1School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, QLD, 4222, Australia.
Journal of environmental management
|February 5, 2025
概括
气候变化和水需求威胁着亚热带水资源,增加了生态风险. 水域管理者必须采取行动,减轻这些对水资源和生态系统完整性的影响.
科学领域:
- 水文和环境科学 水文和环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 河流流程对生态系统健康和生物多样性至关重要,但受到水资源利用,极端事件和气候变化的威胁.
- 环境流量是为了减轻对河流系统的影响而实施的.
研究的目的:
- 在气候变化和水需求增加的情况下,评估亚热带水库中的水供应和生态风险.
- 评估环境流量策略 (Q90和Q90M) 对供水和生态系统需求的有效性.
主要方法:
- 使用的土壤和水资源评估工具用于水文输出和一般湖泊模型用于蒸发率.
- 使用水资源管理工具计算亚热带水库的水平衡.
- 通过将没有水的基线与未来的气候和水调节场景进行比较,评估了流量改变风险.
主要成果:
- 与基线相比,未来的气候变化和水需求情景显著降低了最大洪水峰值,高流量持续时间和年度排放.
- 对高流量条件的生态风险被评估为中高,对于低流量条件的温和.
- 根据一个高排放场景 (RCP 8.5),预计到本世纪末,无论水资源管理策略如何,都会出现高生态风险.
结论:
- 亚热带地区的水资源面临着由于气候引起的水文变化而无法满足需求的中度至高水平.
- 流域管理人员迫切需要实施进一步行动,以减轻气候变化和人口增长对水资源的影响.
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