在快速老龄化人口中预测中风和中风驱动的痴呆症:对爱尔兰的替代预测场景的基于模型的分析
Eithne Sexton1, Martin O'Flaherty2, Anne Hickey3
1School of Population Health, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dublin, Ireland eithnesexton@rcsi.ie.
BMJ open
|February 5, 2025
概括
未来在爱尔兰的中风发病率和痴呆症患病率将大幅增加,预测到2046年将大幅增加. 计划增加中风护理需求和投资预防至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 神经学 神经学
背景情况:
- 了解未来人口需求对于有效的中风服务规划至关重要.
- 预测中风和中风后痴呆的患病率对于资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估年龄特定的中风发病率和病例死亡率的未来趋势.
- 估计这些趋势对爱尔兰预计中风和中风后痴呆症患病率的影响.
主要方法:
- 一个使用概率马尔科夫模型的流行病学建模研究.
- 从1990-2019年到2016-2046年年龄特定的中风发病率和病例死亡率趋势的推断.
- 分析场景,包括稳定趋势,低/高下降,以及非线性减速趋势.
主要成果:
- 一个稳定的趋势情景预测,到2046年,中风幸存者的数量将增加45.7%.
- 预计,在稳定的趋势情景下,到2046年,中风后痴呆病例预计将增加58.9%.
- 不同的下降情景显示,中风的患病率增加从5.4%到40.3%,中风后痴呆的患病率增加从24.5%到56.3%.
结论:
- 爱尔兰未来的中风医疗保健需求高度依赖于流行病学趋势.
- 迫切需要对中风预防策略进行投资.
- 需要积极的规划,以应对预期的未来中风护理需求的增加.
相关概念视频
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
Dementia
Dementia is a collective term for cognitive disorders primarily affecting memory, thinking, and reasoning. It is not a specific disease but a syndrome, with Alzheimer's disease being the most common cause, accounting for approximately 60-80% of cases. Other types include vascular dementia, Lewy body dementia, and frontotemporal dementia. Dementia affects millions worldwide, particularly older adults, though it is not a normal part of aging.
The progression of dementia is generally gradual.
The progression of dementia is generally gradual.
Alzheimer Disease l: Introduction
Alzheimer disease is a chronic, progressive, and irreversible neurodegenerative disorder and the most common cause of dementia in older adults. It leads to gradual neuronal loss, causing cognitive decline, behavioral changes, and loss of functional independence.Risk Factors and EtiologyThe disease is multifactorial. Age is the strongest risk factor, with prevalence doubling every 5 years after age 65. Genetic factors include mutations in genes such as APP, PSEN1, and PSEN2, which are associated...
Dementia l: Introduction
Dementia is an acquired, progressive syndrome characterized by a decline in multiple cognitive domains severe enough to impair daily functioning and reduce independence. Although memory loss is a central feature, the diagnosis requires additional deficits involving language, executive function, visuospatial skills, judgment, calculation, or abstract reasoning. These cognitive impairments reflect underlying neurodegenerative or vascular processes that gradually disrupt neuronal networks...


