美国各县极低出生率的时空模型
Kai Wang1,2, Yingqing Zhang1, Long Bai3
1Wisdom Lake Academy of Pharmacy, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Ren'ai Road 111, Suzhou, 215123, China.
BMC public health
|February 5, 2025
概括
美国出生率的下降在地理上是不平衡的,受教育和城市化等因素的影响. 更高的女性比例和GDP可以帮助缓解这种人口不平衡.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
背景情况:
- 降低出生率给全球带来了诸如人口老龄化和人口不平衡等挑战.
- 了解出生率下降的地理差异对于政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定美国极低出生率的地理差异 (2003-2020年).
- 分析影响县级出生率下降的社会经济,人口和气象因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了一种创新的贝叶斯概括的帕雷托 (GP) 定量回归模型.
- 采用一个最佳的随机局部微分方程和一级的自动回归模型 (SPDE-AR(1)) 进行时空分析.
- 评估出生率压力与各种影响因素之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 确定了老年和受过高等教育的人口,城市化,平均出生体重和母亲年龄对出生率下降的重大影响.
- 在佛罗里达州 (夏洛特,萨拉索塔,科利尔) 和加利福尼亚州 (马林,圣克鲁兹,圣马特奥) 特别强调的特定县正在经历显著的出生率压力.
- 发现女性比例和人均GDP的增加可以减轻出生率下降的压力.
结论:
- 这项研究揭示了美国出生率的恶化趋势和空间不平衡.
- 开发的方法对于分析极端人口压力,包括出生体重和认知障碍是有效的.
- 调查结果强调需要有针对性的干预措施来解决由出生率下降引起的人口不平衡.
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