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Updated: May 29, 2025

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尼日利亚尼日尔河流域的气象干旱和长期趋势以及降雨的空间变化,尼日利亚

Muhammad Lawal Abubakar^1,2,3, Muhammad Sambo Ahmed^4,5, Auwal F Abdussalam^4,5

¹Department of Geography, Kaduna State University, Kaduna, Nigeria. muhdlawal@kasu.edu.ng.

Environmental science and pollution research international

|February 6, 2025

概括

尼日利亚尼日尔河流域的降雨量呈现越来越大的趋势,这表明湿的条件有利于农业和水资源. 然而,历史上发生过严重的干旱事件,需要适应性策略,如灌和抗干旱作物.

科学领域:

气候学气候学气候学
水文学的水文学
农业科学农业科学

背景情况:

降雨对于撒哈拉以南非洲的生计至关重要.
尼日利亚的尼日尔河流域 (NRB) 面临着关键的水资源挑战.
了解降雨模式对于区域发展和粮食安全至关重要.

研究的目的:

评估尼日尔河流域气象干旱,长期降雨趋势和空间变化.
用各种统计方法分析季节性和年度降雨模式.
为与水资源管理和农业相关的政策制定提供数据驱动的见解.

主要方法:

使用贝叶斯突然变化,季节性和趋势 (BEAST) 估计器,曼肯德尔 (MK),修改的曼肯德尔 (MMK),季节性曼肯德尔 (SMK) 和创新的趋势分析 (ITA) 进行趋势分析.
使用变化系数 (CV) 和降水度指数 (PCI) 来评估降雨变化.
应用标准化降水指数 (SPI) 来评估气象干旱.

主要成果:

每年的降雨趋势表明NRB的总体增加,而ITA在大多数站点检测到显著的趋势.
季节性降雨表现出很高的变化,MAM的趋势下降,SON的趋势增加.
严重的干旱事件被确定,特别是在20世纪70年代和80年代,尽管整体潮湿的趋势.

结论:

观察到的每年降雨量增加表明潮湿条件的趋势,可能会增强雨水农业和地下水补充.
显著的季节性变化和历史上的干旱事件凸显了对适应性水资源管理策略的需求.
调查结果支持以粮食安全为重点的政策干预,包括投资于灌和耐旱作物品种.

关键词:

野兽变化点的变化点干旱干旱干旱干旱创新的趋势分析.尼日尔河流盆地尼日尔河流盆地降雨量变化的可能性.这是一个SPI SPI.

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