对人类乳头瘤病毒阳性口腔癌查的影响:基于微显模拟的建模研究
Rebecca Landy1, Gregory W Haber2, Barry I Graubard1
1Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
Journal of the National Cancer Institute
|February 6, 2025
概括
在45-79岁的男性中,对人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 阳性口腔癌的查可以显著减少晚期诊断和死亡率. 每年查显示最有前途的改善结果和增加寿命.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 口腔癌是一个日益关注的问题,特别是HPV16阳性病例.
- 早期发现HPV阳性口腔癌对于改善患者的治疗结果至关重要.
- 目前正在探索查策略,以确定有风险的人群.
研究的目的:
- 估计查对HPV16阳性口腔癌的发病率和死亡率的影响.
- 为了评估HPV阳性口腔癌的不同查方式和频率.
- 评估查对45-79岁美国男性的潜在益处.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个个人级别的,状态过渡的自然历史显微模拟模型.
- 该模型模拟了使用口服HPV16检测,HPV16-E6抗体检测和超声波的查.
- 场景包括不同癌症进展速度和查频率.
主要成果:
- 在没有查的情况下,预计到84岁时会有超过163,000例HPV阳性口腔癌和32,000例死亡.
- 每年查可以将晚期诊断 (AJCC III/IV阶段) 从90.0%降低到59.1%.
- 年度查显示,癌症死亡率减少了36.2%,增加了106,000个生命年.
结论:
- 对HPV阳性口腔癌的查有可能带来人口层面的好处.
- 通过有效的查,可以减少晚期癌症,治疗发病率和死亡率.
- 需要进一步研究随机试验中的疗效和成本效益.
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