在民主选举中竞争的普遍统计
Ritam Pal1, Aanjaneya Kumar1, M S Santhanam1
1Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Department of Physics, Pune 411008, India.
Physical review letters
|February 6, 2025
概括
选举显示出由选民投票率驱动的胜利利率的普遍模式. 这一发现,在不同国家和几十年中观察到,表明一个竞争性的选举制度,可以帮助检测不当行为.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 复杂系统分析 复杂系统分析
- 统计物理 统计物理
背景情况:
- 选举是复杂的集体决策过程.
- 之前的研究还没有在不同规模,国家和时间段的选举结果中确定普遍的宏观模式.
- 现有的实证选举数据没有显示出一致的,规模不变的规律性.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个无参数的投票模型来解释选举结果中的普遍模式.
- 通过分析来证明选民投票率分布和胜利率分布之间的关系.
- 在各种情况下适用的选举动态中确定强大的普遍性.
主要方法:
- 开发一个无参数投票模型.
- 胜利率与选民投票率之间的关系的分析推导.
- 验证使用来自34个国家的经验性选举数据,跨越数十年和选举规模.
主要成果:
- 选举胜利率的分布从根本上取决于选民投票率的分布.
- 结合边际和投票率的规模测量揭示了选举结果的强大普遍性.
- 来自不同国家和时间段的经验数据支持该模型的预测.
结论:
- 在选举结果中存在一种普遍的模式或风格化的事实,与选民投票率有关.
- 偏离这种普遍性可能标志着选举错误.
- 观察到的普遍性强调了民主选举的内在竞争性.
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