极端温度对病率,死亡率和病例严重性的影响在德国紧急护理中的影响
Jona Jannis Frasch1, Hans-Helmut König1, Claudia Konnopka1
1University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Department of Health Economics and Health Services Research (W37 6. OG), Martinistr. 52, 20246, Hamburg, Germany.
Environmental research
|February 6, 2025
概括
极端的寒冷和高温对德国的紧急护理产生了重大影响. 虽然寒冷的日子减少了入院,但增加了死亡风险,而炎热的日子增加了入院和死亡率,突出了迫切的公共卫生需求.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了极端温度事件,造成了严重的公共卫生风险.
- 极端的高温和低温与人类健康的结果有着记录良好的,但复杂的联系.
- 了解这些对紧急护理服务的影响对于公共卫生准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查极端环境温度对德国紧急住院,死亡率和病例严重性的影响.
- 量化极端寒冷和高温对紧急护理利用的直接和延迟健康影响.
- 为减轻与温度相关的健康风险提供公共卫生战略的信息.
主要方法:
- 在德国医院 (2010-2019) 分析了超过7800万个体质急诊 (EA) 病例.
- 使用了双阶段时间序列分析与分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM).
- 纳入来自德国气象局的每日气象站数据,以评估极端温度 (第1个和第99个百分位).
主要成果:
- 极度寒冷的日子降低了整体EA风险,但增加了致命的EA风险和病例死亡率.
- 极端炎热的日子增加了EA风险,致命的EA风险和病例死亡率.
- 最寒冷的1%天避免了3,400个EA,但导致了450个额外的死亡;最热的1%天导致了4,900个额外的EA和300个额外的死亡.
结论:
- 极端的高温与急救医疗病率的增加有关.
- 极端的高温和低温都与德国紧急护理的高死亡率和病例严重程度有关.
- 迫切需要采取公共卫生干预措施,以应对极端温度对健康的影响.
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