对预测COVID-19阳性的医院病床占用率的务实方法的评估
Derryn Lovett1,2, Thomas Woodcock3, Jacques Naude4,5
1Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK d.lovett@imperial.ac.uk.
BMJ health & care informatics
|February 6, 2025
概括
一个简单的模型准确地预测了在Omicron之前的COVID-19医院病床占用率. 随着Omicron变种的出现,准确性显著下降,这凸显了在流行病预测中持续监测错误的必要性.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健管理的管理
- 流行病学预测 流行病学预测
- 公共卫生信息学 公共卫生信息学
背景情况:
- 准确预测医院病床占用率对于在流行病期间管理医疗保健资源至关重要.
- 需要简单,易于使用的预测方法才能被卫生系统广泛采用.
研究的目的:
- 评估实用,简单的方法方法预测COVID-19医院病床占用率的可行性和准确性.
- 评估这些预测对医疗保健规划和资源分配的有用性.
主要方法:
- 从2021年6月到2022年1月,采用了观测预测设计.
- 线性回归模型使用未接种疫苗的人群中滞后,平滑的COVID-19病例预测了床位占用率.
- 平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 量化模型准确性.
主要成果:
- 模型准确性最初很好 (2021年7月至10月的MAPE 10.8%),然后下降 (2021年10月至12月的MAPE 20.0%).
- 与Omicron变种 (MAPE 110.4%2021年12月至2022年1月) 的准确性明显恶化.
- 模型的结果为医疗保健领导者在规划和服务提供方面提供了信息.
结论:
- 实用模型有效地预测了COVID-19病床占用率在Omicron之前.
- 模型性能在Omicron出现后大幅下降.
- 持续的错误监测对于识别现实世界流行病预测中的性能问题至关重要.
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