泰国干旱和极端降水事件的分析:趋势,气候建模和气候变化适应应变化的影响
José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior1,2, David Mendes3, Helder Dutra Porto2
1Laboratório de Meteorologia Aplicada e Meio Ambiente (LAMMA), Instituto de Ciências Atmosféricas (ICAT), Universidade Federal do Alagoas, Maceió Alagoas, Brazil.
Scientific reports
|February 6, 2025
概括
泰国面临着日益加剧的极端气候事件. 未来的预测显示连续干旱天数增加和更长的温暖时期,需要在所有地区采取紧急缓解措施,以保护社会经济部门.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境建模环境建模
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
背景情况:
- 泰国非常容易受到气候变化的影响,预计极端天气事件的增加.
- 了解未来的干旱和降雨模式对于国家适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用气候模型预测泰国未来的极端干旱和降雨事件.
- 在不同的排放场景下评估关键气候指数的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用六个CMIP6模型的组合进行气候预测.
- 应用人工神经网络 (ANN) 用反向传播进行分析.
- 分析的气候指数:CDD,CSU,CWD,WSDI和WW在历史,RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下.
主要成果:
- 在气候指数中观察到显著的区域差异.
- 泰国各地连续干旱日 (CDD) 和温暖周期持续时间指数 (WSDI) 预计增加,特别是在RCP 8.5.5下.
- 连续湿天 (CWD) 的变化和连续最大雨天 (WW) 的增加被注意到,特别是在中部和南部地区.
结论:
- 泰国需要特定区域的缓解和适应战略,以应对不断升级的极端干旱和降雨.
- 这些事件对关键的社会经济部门构成重大风险,包括农业,工业和旅游业.
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