气候平均值和气候变量之间的相互作用驱动着未来农业生态系统的脆弱性
Eva Sinha1, Donghui Xu1, Kendalynn A Morris2
1Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA.
Global change biology
|February 7, 2025
概括
气候变化通过改变温度,降水量和变化而影响农业. 气温上升和极端天气降低了作物产量和碳储存,威胁到粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 农业对于全球粮食供应和土地利用至关重要.
- 气候变化对农业生态系统的不同影响尚未完全理解.
- 了解这些影响对于预测农业生产率和碳循环至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 区分和量化气候变化对农业生态系统碳和能源流以及作物生产的影响的平均状态与变化.
- 研究气候平均值和变化之间的非线性相互作用.
- 为预测农业生态系统对21世纪气候变化的脆弱性提供基础.
主要方法:
- 利用先进的天气发生器来分离气候平均值和温度和降雨的变化.
- 采用了使用能源外尺度地球系统模型 (E3SM) 的因数设计模拟.
- 在各种气候变化场景下,模拟了美国中西部的农业地区.
主要成果:
- 温度的增加意味着减少储存的碳,植物生产力和作物产量,可能将生态系统从碳汇转移到来源.
- 温度和降水量的变化意味着,单独或联合,显著影响碳流,碳池和作物产量.
- 温度和降水平均值的综合变化造成了最大的减少: -16%的总初级产量, -35%的植被碳,以及玉米和大豆的显著产量减少.
结论:
- 气候平均变化和变化转移对农业生态系统具有明显的相互作用影响.
- 农业生态系统对气候平均值和变异性的综合变化表现出非线性反应.
- 这项研究提高了对农业系统应对未来气候变化的理解和预测.
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