环境和临床监测投入的表征,以支持未来的脊髓灰质炎终端游戏的综合建模
Kamran Badizadegan1, Kimberly M Thompson1
1Kid Risk, Inc., Orlando, Florida, United States of America.
PLOS global public health
|February 7, 2025
概括
全球脊髓灰质炎病毒监测需求正在扩大,而不是减少,这是由于持续的传播和新技术. 本审查审查了未来的监测选项及其对消除脊髓灰质炎努力的影响.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病监测 传染病监测 传染病
背景情况:
- 1988年开始的全球脊髓灰质炎根除工作需要强大的脊髓灰质炎病毒监测系统.
- 全球脊髓灰质炎病毒实验室网络 (GPLN) 成立于1990年,利用急性性 (AFP) 的临床监测和标准化实验室方法.
- 环境监测和基因测试的进步最近扩大了监测能力.
研究的目的:
- 从2024年底开始审查小儿麻病毒监测证据.
- 告知决策者关于在脊髓灰质炎病毒监测中潜在的权衡和不确定性的信息.
- 支持2024-2035年的政策,传输和经济建模.
主要方法:
- 对现有脊髓灰质炎病毒监测证据的描述性审查.
- 分析监测策略的演变,包括临床和环境抽样.
- 考虑基因测试和废水采样方面的技术创新.
主要成果:
- 与历史预期相反,预计到2035年,脊髓灰质炎病毒监测需求将增长.
- 在某些地区持续的脊髓灰质炎病毒传播需要持续的特殊监测.
- 技术进步提供了新的机会,但也带来了复杂性和权衡.
结论:
- 消除脊髓灰质炎的最终目标需要持续和不断发展的监测策略.
- 综合的国家疾病监测系统在不久的将来可能无法完全取代特定于小儿麻症病毒的需求.
- 未来的监控系统设计必须平衡创新,成本效益和全球卫生安全.
更多相关视频
12:21A Mouse Model for the Transition of Streptococcus pneumoniae from Colonizer to Pathogen upon Viral Co-Infection Recapitulates Age-Exacerbated Illness
Published on: September 28, 2022
2.3K
09:08Developing a Salivary Antibody Multiplex Immunoassay to Measure Human Exposure to Environmental Pathogens
Published on: September 12, 2016
8.7K
相关概念视频
01:18Steps in Outbreak Investigation
102
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
102
01:29Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Algorithms for Numerical Problem Solving
38
Mechanistic models play a crucial role in algorithms for numerical problem-solving, particularly in nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NMEM). These models aim to minimize specific objective functions by evaluating various parameter estimates, leading to the development of systematic algorithms. In some cases, linearization techniques approximate the model using linear equations.
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
38
01:23Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
26
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
26