考虑到模型参数的不确定性,可以提供更可靠的溶解有机碳动态预测,以帮助饮用水管理
Ricardo Paíz1, Donald C Pierson2, Klara Lindqvist3
1Centre for Freshwater and Environmental Studies, Dundalk Institute of Technology, A91 K584 Dundalk, Co. Louth, Ireland.
Water research
|February 7, 2025
概括
未来的气候变化将增加河流中的溶解有机碳 (DOC),影响饮用水. 预测显示,无论社会经济路径如何,DOC度都在上升,这凸显了水资源管理适应的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 气候和人类行为显著改变流域水文和营养素出口,影响饮用水质量.
- 溶解有机碳 (DOC) 是受这些变化影响的关键营养素,对水处理有影响.
研究的目的:
- 根据各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 规划未来的河流排放和DOC动态.
- 量化与基线相对的变化,对比瑞典和爱尔兰的水域.
- 评估气候数据和模型参数化的不确定性贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用了集成DOC模块 (GWLF-DOC) 的通用流域负载函数模型.
- 用一组全球气候模型数据驱动模型.
- 从多个模型参数集和评估不确定性来源中纳入的变化.
主要成果:
- 根据场景和时间段,河流排放预测的规模,变化和方向各不相同.
- 在所有情景中,DOC度被始终预计每年和随着时间的推移都会增加.
- 在高升温和低缓解情景下,预计到本世纪末将达到最高的DOC水平.
结论:
- 未来的气候数据是排放和DOC预测中不确定性的主要来源.
- 在气候变化较高的情况下,DOC模型参数的不确定性变得更加显著.
- 纳入参数不确定性对于解释和向水资源管理者传达气候变化影响至关重要.
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