一个关于降水事件的整体随机模型
Alexander Weyant1, Alexander Gershunov2, Anna K Panorska3
1Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Climate, Atmospheric Sciences, and Physical Oceanography Division, La Jolla, CA, 92037, USA. aweyant@ucsd.edu.
Scientific reports
|February 7, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种新的概率分布来描述美国西部的降雨事件,分析其持续时间,规模和强度. 该模型有助于评估极端天气事件带来的风险.
科学领域:
- 气象学 天气学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
背景情况:
- 美国西部的年度降水集中在几个强烈的风暴事件中.
- 当每天或每小时测量时,观测到的降水事件是不同持续时间和强度的序列.
研究的目的:
- 引入和验证用于描述降水事件特征的三变概率分布.
- 根据持续时间,规模和强度对事件概率和回报期进行灵活评估.
主要方法:
- 开发一个三变概率分布模型.
- 将分布应用于来自美国西部长期气象站的每日降水数据.
主要成果:
- 拟议的分布自然描述了美国西部的降水事件.
- 该模型允许灵活评估事件持续时间,规模和强度的概率和回报期.
结论:
- 三变分布为描述降水事件提供了一个强大的框架.
- 这种表征增强了对极端气象事件相关风险的理解.
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